Deshawn Returns to Action by Discussing a Day-old Story

In case you all thought I was just wallowing in the misery of the Reds ‘ace’ giving up 5 runs and losing a ‘stopper’ game to a hack like Ryan Dempster, the truth is that I’ve been sick for a couple of days. Because of that, I was utterly incapable of commenting on the release of the 2008 schedule. As a couple of astute readers already pointed out, the ebbs and flows of the league from year to year ensure that few stats are as meaningless as ‘preseason’ strength of schedule. This link from ESPN shows just how irrelevant the hand wringing is. The Horse has a brutal run on paper again this year, but some of those teams they play will regress. There are a couple of rules that serve to help us understand just about every Colts’ season:

1. They will win at least 12 games
2. They will win the AFC South
3. They will go at least 7-1 at home (unless they have have another give up game)
4. They will win their first 6-8 games in a row.
5. All predictions are based on Freeney and Harrison being healthy.

Keeping these rules in mind is critical for spotting the potential pitfalls on the way.

Here’s a game by game look at what 2008 will likely bring:

Week 1: Bears – Win (by a lot)
The first of several prime time games will invariably feature John Madden commenting that Rex Grossman fumbled because of “freakishly small hands”.

Week 2: @Vikings – Win
Run D isn’t the problem for the Colts that it used to be, and I trust Tavaris Jackson about as far as he can throw himself. That’s an unnecessarily awkward way of saying, “He sucks, we win by 2 TDs.“

Week 3: Jholes – Win
No team did less to help itself fix what was really broken than the Jags. Their defense was not good last year, and they did nothing but lose players. Their wide receiver additions are hilarious. They are heading back to 8-8, 9-7 territory

Week 4: @Texans – Win
This might be a tougher game than in years past (though they usually put up a fight at home), but I like the Colts coming off the bye week.

Week 5: Baltimore – Win
Remember when this was a scary game?

Week 6: @Packers – Win
This is one of those classic ‘looks tough on paper until you remember that Brett Favre just retired’ games. It seems there’s one every year.

Week 7: @Titans – Win
As we’ve repeatedly shown, the Titans win in spite of VY. Unless he gets hurt before this game, they are going down at home on Monday night.

Week 8: Patriots – Win
I must admit that I hate playing them on a short week, but I think that a healthy Colts team is better than a healthy Pats team, so I’m picking them here.

Week 9: @Steelers – Loss
I don’t think the Steelers are that good, but this game has bad weather/bad field written all over it. The ’72 Dolphins rest easy.

Week 10: Texans – Win
No way the Texans win at Indy. Never happened, never will as long as #18 is upright.

Week 11: @Chargers – Win
Listen, I don’t get the ‘Phil Rivers has arrived’ talk. He played a courageous game against NE in the playoffs…but he also sucked. He left the game at RCA with his team trailing. It was Billy Volek who won that game. So what has Phil Rivers done? He beat a mediocre Titans club and sucked at NE. . . oooh scary. I also scoff at the whole ‘Chargers have the Colts number thing’. They won a game so long ago, that SD doesn’t even have the same coach/QB anymore and two of the weirdest games ever last year. This team doesn’t scare me at all.

Week 12- @Browns – Win
Perhaps no team will be as hilariously disappointing as Cleveland next year. All you had to do was watch them last year to see that they were frauds. Romeo Crenell got one of the least deserved and most franchise crushing contract extensions in history. This club will be in the crapper for about 3 more years.

Week 13- Bengals – Win
This team has fallen hard and fast.

Week 14- Lions – Win
Hee Hee.

Week 15- @Jholeville – Loss
I don’t like the set up here. The Jags will be needing this to stay alive in the wild card hunt, and are playing at home on a short week. The Colts should have most everything sown up by this point, so this one smells.

Week 16 – Titans-???
So here’s the magic question again: to rest or not to rest? The Colts and Bucs (two teams that rested starters last year) lost their first playoff games, thus renewing the moronic call to play every game all the way through. Everyone forgets that both teams came out blazingly fast in those games. I’m a believer that it doesn’t much matter. In the new NFL, home playoff games are increasingly unimportant in terms of knowing who will win. If I had to guess, I’d say the Colts sit everyone down again, as the Titans eek out a narrow win that eliminates the Jags from playoff contention.

Final record 13-3.

I know. They went 13-3 last year too, so it seems like chalk. That’s the thing about the Colts under Dungy. They are going to win between 12 and 14 games, so 13 seems like as good a number as any. Worst case, they go 11-5. Best case, they run the table (although ask a Pats player if they really think that is a ‘best case’ scenario anymore!)

Here’s a list of (mostly) schedule related reading:
John Clayton talks about how tough the AFC North has it. I’m telling you, it’s going to be a looong season in Cleveland.

DJ Gallo picks the top 40 games of the year. Number XI is priceless. He seems to think that Pats game is a big deal. Wonder why?

Don Banks (like everyone else) likes the Colts Pats the best, and also tries to drum up a non-existent controversy about the Colts-Browns.

FO looks back at the ’02 draft. We did pretty well in that one.

Does this story scare anyone else? Other than maybe Mark Cuban when has the phrase “hands on owner” ever been a good thing?

Here’s an old article that just came to me. Check out the photos too. It makes me feel sick to see the old park that way. I’ll never forget seeing Billy Moore get the championship winning hit in ’86 or Razor Shines play his last game. My favorite Bush memory is watching an exhibition game with the Reds. Deion Sanders led off with a walk, stole second and third and scored on a wild pitch. He was the fastest man I’ve ever seen. His acceleration was freakish. He was also much larger than I would have guessed. Thanks Chad, for the links (and for going to a lot of those games with me!).

Demond Sanders: I mostly agree with your picks and reasoning. Obviously it is a little dangerous making picks when we don’t yet know whether two of Indy’s highly compensated super stars will even take the field at 100% in 2008. However, I agree that we have to approach the season as if Harrison and Freeney will be back to normal. If that pair plays the entire season I think the Colts will finish 15-1 or 14-2. They’ll fire bomb the Patriots at home if they have everyone at their disposal. I’d figure them to lose to the Steelers and maybe the Jags. I think they’ll win XLIII next February.

Remember logic would dictate that this team should be much improved from 2007. They won’t have as many injuries. Key players at OT, WR, CB, LB, and DT will have much more experience. If Polian can solve some minor issues at RB and DE depth this will be a team that we talk about for a long, long time. It’s been tossed around many times before, but don’t be surprised if we finally see the the return of Raheem Brock to Defensive End. Also, I’m starting to favor using an early-ish pick on a pass-catching back.

Bone crushing 2008 schedule released

Here it is. Looks ridiculous as usual. I can count only five games I know with certainty we will win. There are a lot of jump balls on there. Of course if Marvin and Freeney are healthy you might be able to find 16 wins on there. Big if. The schedule generally looks much easier about a month into the season, but right now there aren’t many gimmes on there.

Frustrating Saturday

While my wife is traveling on business in Costa Rica, I’m playing daddy daycare to my kids, and have limited sports watching time. So why then did I waste what I have on last night’s Pacers and Reds games? The Blue and Gold going down was obviously more significant because it all but signified their exit from the playoffs. I realize that getting our ass kicked by Boston was no one’s idea of fun, but long playoff runs are built on the back of such things. The great teams of the 90s had a couple of first-round flameouts before ascending to new heights. I wanted to see them play with pride down the stretch (which they mostly had until last night), and get rewarded. Instead, the highlight of my spouseless Saturday night ended up being an Ashton Kutcher skit on SNL? Sheesh…

As for my beloved Reds, they make me want to put my head through a plate glass window. Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion are hitting back to back and if you add their batting averages together, you can maybe scrape .300. They are the 5/6 hole equivalent of the banjo hitting catcher and the pitcher’s spot. My aggravation has been made worse by the fact that I also have Dunn on fantasy team for the first time since his rookie year call up. When he goes cold, he can flat KILL a club. I’m not exactly panicking on the Reds, mainly because several guys are hitting now (Votto is showing signs of life), and the pitching is still great. But it’s annoying to be cursing two inexcusable 1-run losses to the Pirates (while stranding some 20 odd runners in two games) instead of celebrating a great start to the season. What’s the cure for my ills?

Johnny Franchise starts today.

I’m no Faulkner or Eliot…

but I can still churn out the stream of consciousness when necessary.

It’s hard to run a football centric blog in the offseason when you root for a team that seems to take great pride in never having anything of note happen. Maybe we’ll do a piece next week on who the Horse looks to snag with those three 6th round supplemental picks! Or not.

This piece is pure revisionist history. All I heard at the time was that the Chargers loved the chance to pick Leaf, and the Colts had just blown the biggest pick ever. The Chargers traded UP to get Leaf, the single worst pick in history. Let’s not make poor Bobby B the victim here. Still the article was interesting because of the Polian quotes about the workouts with Peyton and Leaf. I had never heard that Manning worked out better than Leaf. That makes the pick look like even more of a slam dunk.

I gotta say that I realize it doesn’t matter much, but the fact that the Pacers are trying to finish strong is cool. I feel like it’s 1987 all over again and Stipo is driving in for a layup against the Knicks to put us in the playoffs. That came up short, and so will this, but the effort is nice to see.

When is a tough 10th inning loss still cause for celebration? Two words: Johnny Franchise. It’s true, I have Cuetomania. I spent a long time last night wondering when the soonest I could drive the 4+ hours to Cincy just to see him pitch.

I am not going to change my opinion on Corey Patterson no matter how many clutch 8th and 9th inning homeruns he hits. Principally, because I’m terrified I’ll jinx him and secondly, because all this proves is that he shouldn’t be hitting leadoff. Note all these have been solo shots. Still, I’m not sure whether I should be rooting for or against him making me look like an ass.

I must say the words, “This team can’t hit” at least 3 times a game.
*******

Finally, a personal note to the Colts Girl. We are so sorry for your loss. You and your family are in our prayers. I’m sorry this note comes at the end of such a run of triviality.

Steve Nash anybody?

This is hilarious. Listen the whole way through. Jay Bilas owns the ever-stupid Dan Le Batard. White Canadians apparently don’t count in his moronic, race-baiting argument.

Yes, in case you are wondering…

that was about as satisfying a championship game as it could possibly be. I feel bad for the kids from Memphis, because they’ll have to live with that one for a long long time, but still it was a wonderful win for Kansas. I prefer to see the team who can hit free throws win it. It reminded me of 87 when Syracuse (who physically had a vastly superior team to IU) yanked several free throws down the stretch.

Update: I think the whole “Roy Williams is wearing a Kansas sticker” thing was retarded. Coach K wore an IU button in 1987 at the Final Four even though IU had eliminated his Blue Devils earlier in the tournament. It was seen as a classy show of support for his friend Bob Knight. People need to get over themselves.

And yes, everything I know about college basketball eventually brings me back to 1987.

Dropping the Berraisms

It’s Deja Vu all over again. Dusty Baker takes over an underachieving club with two hot young arms…

It’s 2003, and a Faustian bargain has been placed in front of Dusty. A goat-hoofed man (what is it with the Cubs and goats?) approaches Dusty and says, “Do you want to be the man to break the curse? I’ll give you this one season to try. In exchange, all you have to give me is the future of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Their baseball souls for immortality! Think about it Dusty! Imagine the possibilities.”

Dusty is an astute guy and responds to the Lord of Flies, “Wait, wait, wait. Last time I trusted you, I got to game 7 of the World Series in exchange for Barry Bonds’ baseball immortality, but you yanked the rug out from under me! What’s the catch man?”

The angel of light replies silkily, “Dusty, you wound me! There are no hidden schemes with me. What you see is what you get. I tell you Dusty, it’s such a sure thing that you’ll win the series with this Cubs team that I promise you that only the Cub fans themselves could possibly stop you! They would have to rise from their seats and literally steal the ball from the glove of your team. Dusty, my friend! Sure I’ll claim the baseball soul of those two brilliant young men, but they’ll be heroes forever in Chicagoland! Shake my hand and this curse is as good as lifted…”

Well just a few years after the Devil proved it ain’t over til it’s over, Dusty has brought his own unique brand of baseball wisdom to Cincinnati and things are looking up. The Reds have now seen two electric starts in 4 days from young Dominican arms, as well as a pair of walkoff wins spurred on by a guy who couldn’t lay down a bunt and a 38 year-old back up catcher only playing because two other guys got hurt in front of him. There’s some scarey hoo–doo going on in the Queen City, and I don’t know whether to start getting excited or brace myself for some epic misery. Think about it. The only real question about this Reds team is if they can hit enough. Whereas I’ve always been a pessimist in football, I’m a natural optimist in baseball, but weird goings on in the first week in Cincy even have me a bit skittish.

Let’s just say that as the summer wears on, I’ll be keeping an eye out for pitch counts north of 120 and talking snakes.

An Odd Bandwagon (aka an apology to Jeff Keppinger but NOT Corey Patterson…not now not ever)

I suppose bandwagon jumping is a tendency of most fans. I’ve been a die hard fan of my big four (IU, Reds, Colts, Pacers) all my life without wavering. I limit my personal betrayals to the players that play for my teams. I have been known to curse and cheer a guy within one at bat, and in general, nothing I say about any player in the aftermath of a loss can be counted as a true glimpse into my feelings about that player. My mini-rant after Monday’s Reds’ game is probably as good an example of that as anything. My support for players waxes and wanes, but my support for my teams is never in question.

Jeff Keppinger has now had one bad game and two good ones. When he’s hot, I’ll love him. When he’s cold, I’ll hate him. It will take a lot for a player like that to get on my permanent good side. Still, I’m sorry I buried him on Monday. His minor league numbers don’t scream ‘future star’, but he certainly came through the last two days.

Corey Patterson will get no such apology from me despite his solo home run on Wednesday. I have zero use for leadoff men with decent power and terrible, terrible OB%. Norris Hopper at the very least and eventually Jay Bruce should be manning CF for the Reds. As it stands, we’ll get treated to lots of awesome solo shots and even more 0-4 games from good ol’ Corey.

Johnny Franchise

Not to be too giddy over one start, but never in my life has a Reds pitcher had so electric a debut as rookie Johnny Cueto had today. Peppering the zone with 96 mph heaters, he held the Diamondbacks to 1 hit (a home run), no walks and 10 Ks in 7 innings. No Reds pitcher has struck out 10 in his debut since 1900. The Reds haven’t really developed a homegrown starter since Tom freaking Browning. This team may have serious problems, but maybe, just maybe starting pitching won’t be one of them for too much longer. I was laughing out loud with glee for most of the game. The really amazing part? Dusty pulled him before he hit the 100 pitch mark.

Wonders may never cease.

Demond Sanders: Amazing performance. Dusty compared it to the way Fernando Valenzuela broke onto the scene to dominate out of nowhere. It was good enough to warrant a little hyperbole. I’m proud of Dusty for pulling him, but you know deep down he wanted to see if the kid could go the distance.

An Open letter to Coach Crean

Wow, great job yesterday at the press conference. I think we are all certainly excited for where the program will head under your guidance. I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome you to the IU family to let you know everything you need to get along in Hoosierland:

1. Don’t cheat. I know some people are cynical and suggest that fans will back anyone who wins, and that may be true in places like the New England, but it doesn’t fly in Hoosierland. We all want to win, but we want to follow the rules even more. Kelvin Sampson won. Ask around though and see how popular he is around these parts right now. Please, above all else: don’t cheat.

2. Win the Big Ten. Not the crappy tournament that no one cares about. Win the Big Ten regular season title. That’s what we care about around here. Winning Big Ten titles ensures that we can rub it in the face of Boiler, Buckeye and any other random fan we may know. Turn the Big Ten into our personal sandbox, and we’ll love you for it.

3. Recruit players from Indiana, especially jump shooters. I’ll be honest. Most Hoosier fans love the 2 guard over all other positions. Between Jimmy Chitwood, Steve Alford, and Reggie Miller, the smooth stroke from the three point line is what we are looking for. Get a couple of bonafide Hoosier sharp shooters, and we’ll be good with that.

4. Don’t ever say “Pro-style Offense” even if you run one. We won’t take kindly. Also, make sure your team shoots at least 70% from the free throw line. We HATE it when a team can’t shoot free throws. Say things like box out and screen a lot. We love it when coaches talk about screens and box outs.

5. Beat Purdue. Crush Notre Dame. Don’t dream of losing to any of the following teams under any circumstances ever: Butler, ISU, Ball State. Don’t even play IUPUI, IPFW, Valpo, or any other in-state collection of initials. Most Hoosier fans root for those teams the way someone might have a favorite minor league club. We like them, but we don’t want to see the Yankees play them.

6. Plant us in the Sweet 16 regularly. Winning the tourney is a crap shoot. Don’t get me wrong, you’d better a hang a banner at some point, but to keep the heat off, just get us to the second week every year, and we’ll be pacified…for a while.

7. Be judicious in how you play the Knight card. If you do it too much, you’ll aggravate one faction. If you don’t pay him any homage, you’ll never get the support of high school coaches and some ex-players that is necessary to have harmony. Good luck with that.

8. You have two seasons before we seriously expect results, but we had better start seeing improvement by the end of year two.

Do this, and you can retire as a minor deity in Indiana. Fail, and…hey, who am I kidding? You aren’t going fail. You married Jim Harbaugh’s sister. You’re the man!

Best of luck,
Deshawn Zombie,
Member, Hoosier Nation since 1976.